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JUDY WOODRUFF: Tomorrow, the United States Congress will convene its 114th time, and with it will come Republican control of both the House and Senate for the first time in nearly a decade.
To give you a sense of the new Congress, here is the composition of the House as it stands today, with Republican seats in red and Democrats in blue. And here is the House as it will be starting tomorrow, more red, less blue. There will be one vacant seat. That follows the resignation of New York GOP Congressman Michael Grimm.
The Senate faces a more dramatic shift. Democrats held a significant majority in this past Congress. Starting tomorrow, that will flip. Republicans will hold 54 seats and the Democratic Caucus will have 46.
What does all this mean for the agenda? The main issues ahead include energy, health care, and some new fiscal deadlines approaching.
To get a more precise idea of what all this could mean, we are joined by David Boaz of the libertarian Cato Institute and Arkadi Gerney of the liberal-leaning Center for American Progress.
And we welcome you both to the program again.
DAVID BOAZ, Cato Institute: Thank you.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Thank you.
So you both watch the Congress very closely. You look at the issues.
David Boaz, let me start with you. What are Republicans looking for out of this Congress?
DAVID BOAZ: Well, I think, immediately, they’re likely to turn to the Keystone pipeline issue.
JUDY WOODRUFF: This week?
DAVID BOAZ: Yes, that’s right. And they will likely pass that in the House of Representatives. They will probably pass it in the Senate, but not with a veto-proof- majority. And, therefore, it’s — well, I don’t know. It’s still possible the president will let that go.
But then they’re going to turn, I think, to Obamacare. And then budget are going to occupy much of the year.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, let’s start with energy and the Keystone pipeline.
Arkadi Gerney, looks like the Republicans are going to get this passed. The president is expected to veto it? Is that your understanding?
ARKADI GERNEY, Center for American Progress: I think that’s the expectation.
But I think what you see from Republicans is this real focus on just the Keystone pipeline. Years ago, both Democrats and Republicans were talking about an all-of-the-above energy strategy. Now it’s really Keystone pipeline, Keystone pipeline, Keystone pipeline from Republicans.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And you’re saying nothing else you see on energy coming?
ARKADI GERNEY: Well, I think we’re actually seeing some progress in the real world of energy, with gas prices down, a lot of progress toward more fuel-efficient cars and renewable energy.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.
ARKADI GERNEY: But it looks like, this week, the Republicans will have a very narrow focus on just this Keystone pipeline.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And just on the point of — if the president vetoes, as expected, enough votes on the part of Republicans to overturn the veto or not?
DAVID BOAZ: I doubt they can get two-thirds in both houses.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And your sense is the same?
ARKADI GERNEY: That’s correct.
JUDY WOODRUFF: All right, let’s talk about health care.
David Boaz, you were telling us earlier you think there’s going to be an early attempt again on the part of Republicans to overturn the president’s health care law.
DAVID BOAZ: Yes, but the difference is, as you just said, now they have a Republican Senate.
And so the likely thing is that the House wants to pass a repeal and replace, or maybe just repeal, promising later to replace Obamacare. I think they will pass that. The Senate would probably have a majority for that, but probably not a 60-vote majority. And under the new sort of it takes 60 votes to do anything in the Senate, they couldn’t pass it.
So the likely tactic for Republicans is to make it part of the budget bill and push it forward under a reconciliation process.
JUDY WOODRUFF: But what does that mean?
DAVID BOAZ: Well, reconciliation is a way of dealing with reconciling what both houses…
JUDY WOODRUFF: No, but, I mean, what does it mean in terms of health care, of the health care law?
DAVID BOAZ: Well, if they repeal, if they put an Obamacare repeal in a reconciliation bill, then they can get it passed by both houses of Congress and sent to the president’s desk, where he will surely veto the repeal of Obamacare.
So, then it will go back. And the question will be, do the Republicans then send a cleaner budget bill, having made their point with Obamacare? Do they put things in that the president doesn’t like, but that he won’t want to veto twice?
JUDY WOODRUFF: You mean that he doesn’t like with regard to health care?
DAVID BOAZ: No, more likely that he doesn’t like with regard to the budget generally. He’s not going to let a repeal of Obamacare go through.
JUDY WOODRUFF: But the bottom line on this, Arkadi Gerney, is that there’s going to no be change in the health care law? Is that…
ARKADI GERNEY: I think that’s right.
We have heard this tune before. The health care law was passed in 2010. It’s working. More than nine million Americans who didn’t have coverage have it now. The costs of health care, which had been skyrocketing for years, are now escalating at a much slower rate.
But Congress and Republicans in Congress have been working for years to undermine this law. They have taken tens of votes on it. They have tried to connect it…
JUDY WOODRUFF: They have talked about it on the campaign trail.
ARKADI GERNEY: They have talked about it on the campaign trail.
They have tried to shut down the government several times. So, it’s not surprising that this continues to be a fascination of Republicans on Capitol Hill.
JUDY WOODRUFF: If anything, we’re looking at the courts, because we know this is coming up in the Supreme Court.
DAVID BOAZ: That’s right.
I was going to say, Arkadi is probably right that they can pass it, the president can veto it. That leaves us at the status quo. But it is possible that the Supreme Court will correctly find that what the president is doing is not authorized in the law, and that will start over.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So we’re looking at a disagreement over energy. We’re looking at continued disagreement over health care. Where do you see areas of possible agreement in this Congress? What do you…
DAVID BOAZ: Trade is one area where I would think that there is potential for the president, who, like most presidents, does want to sign trade agreements, and the Republicans, who mostly support free trade, to work together, possibly against a majority of the Democrats in both houses, who, heavily influenced by unions, don’t like further free trade.
JUDY WOODRUFF: How do you see the trade issue?
ARKADI GERNEY: Well, I think a more likely issue — I think trade can be quite controversial.
I think another issue where you might see compromise is around criminal justice reform. Senator Booker and Rand Paul have a bill together to look at — particularly at nonviolent drug offenses and some of the sentences that we have now. And I think some of the incidents like in Ferguson, Missouri, and the Garner case in New York have put this question of inequalities in the criminal justice system in the spotlight.
And I think that’s something that you will actually see Democrats and Republicans potentially make some progress on.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Do you see the possibility?
DAVID BOAZ: Yes, I think there is hope for that.
Certainly, the Rand Paul-Cory Booker alliance is important there, criminal justice reform, also possibly repealing or reforming the 1033 program, under which the Pentagon gives military equipment to police forces even in small towns like Ferguson, Missouri. You would hope there could be bipartisan objections to that program.
JUDY WOODRUFF: What about on immigration?
Arkadi Gerney, Republicans are talking about undoing the president’s executive action on immigration. If that’s what they try to do, how will that work through?
ARKADI GERNEY: Well, before the president put forward this action, there were all kinds of threats about how the sky would fall down and how serious a problem it would be if the president went ahead and did this.
So far, the Republicans have not followed through on that threat. There is this upcoming issue of the Homeland Security budget, which expires in February. And that could be another trigger. But this effort to shut down the government or parts of the government for policy outcomes that Republicans don’t like hasn’t worked well in the past. It didn’t work very well for Republicans politically in the Rand — in the shutdown of last year that Senator Cruz did.
So we will see if they go through with anything.
JUDY WOODRUFF: What do you see happening on that front?
DAVID BOAZ: I think there is a majority in the country and in the Congress for some liberalization form of immigration reform.
The problem is, I do believe that the president’s unilateral action has poisoned the well among a lot of Republicans. So, even though there’s a majority for better policy, there may not be a majority you can put together for any particular better policy.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So we may see what, something?
DAVID BOAZ: We may see a stalemate, although I’m still hopeful.
It is true that, in both parties, there’s strong interest in having a more rational and generally more liberal immigration process.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, the bottom line on immigration?
ARKADI GERNEY: Well, I think let’s keep our fingers crossed.
But I think what is a good thing is that for more than four million people who have been living in this country for a long time, the president’s action has made them become part of the economy and part of the country. And I think that’s a good thing.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Arkadi Gerney, David Boaz, we thank you both.
DAVID BOAZ: Thank you.
ARKADI GERNEY: Thank you.
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